Wednesday, February 25, 2009

Palm Beach market finally back to earth during the 4th Q of 2008

Palm Beach home prices - sales fall in 4th quarter

February 2009

After defying gravity for years, the Palm Beach mansion market finally back to earth during 4th quarter of 2008.


The Palm Beach condo market also slowed in 2008.
The number of sales fell, a 20 percent drop from 2007.

This isn’t the first sign that things have cooled in the once resilient mansion market.
The mansion at 756 Slope Trail sold this month for $5.96 million after being marketed for as much as $12 million.

Case-Shiller index still in cliff-dive mode

Tuesday, February 24th, 2009

Case-Shiller index still in cliff-dive mode

No surprise here, but the S&P/Case-Shiller index out today calls 2008 the worst year in the 21-year history of the measure. The National Association of Realtors already has called ‘08 the most painful year for home prices since the Great Depression.

Here’s the Case-Shiller index for Miami-Dade, Broward and Palm Beach counties since 1987:

http://blogs.palmbeachpost.com/realtime/files/2009/02/picture-2.png

Lagging economy hits Palm Beach

SINCE THIS ARTICLE WAS PUBLISHED, the following properties sold in PALM BEACH:


402 Primavera Jan. 2009 $2,000,000

Assessed market value: $4,132,000


2267 E Ibis Isle Jan. 2009 $1,360,000 Previous sale: Jun. 2007 $1,725,000


308 Arabian Nov. 2008 $2,850,000 Previous sale: May 2004 $3,200,000

Assessed market value: $3,000,000


300 Parc Monceau Nov. 2008 $4,000,000

Assessed market value: $6,450,000


301 Garden Dec. 2008 $2,500,000

Assessed market value: $3,000,000


1090 S Ocean Dec. 2008 $4,150,000

Assessed market value: $2,020,000


202 Seaspray Dec. 2008 $860,000

Assessed market value: $700,000

280 Orange Grove Dec. 2008 $1,067,000

Assessed market value: $1,600,000


695 S County Rd. Dec. 3,500,000

Assessed market value: $5,450,000 Previous sale April 2006 $7,800,000


166 Everglades Nov. 2008 $2,500,000 Previous sale: Nov. 2004 $2,771,000


****** ******* ********


Lagging economy hits Palm Beach as homes languish a little longer on market

By MEGAN V. WINSLOW, Daily News Staff Writer
Saturday, November 22, 2008

Palm Beach has enjoyed a hearty share of eye-popping home sales figures this year, including closings of $77.5 million and $95 million.

And according to a fall 2008 residential market report from Brown Harris Stevens, those heavyweight figures have thrust the average price for Palm Beach single-family homes up 80 percent between April and September compared with the same period last year.

But like other luxury home markets across the country, Palm Beach has also seen an increase in the average number of days single-family homes sit on the market. The Brown Harris Stevens report indicates an 8 percent increase from 171 to 184 days between April and September compared with last year.

That's well above the average number of days on market for single-family homes within luxury ZIP codes across the country. According to a Nov. 16 report from the Institute for Luxury Home Marketing in Dallas, the average among 31 major U.S. metro areas is 137 days. That's up from 120 in September and about 110 in January.

Like those local record sales, the high Palm Beach average could be attributed to a few outliers.

.....

While Cloninger said it's never been a better time to be a buyer — especially in Palm Beach, where property has historically held its value — Heym believes it could take time before buyers creep out of a money-holding pattern and perhaps scoop up some of the properties languishing on the market.

"Like any other market, (Palm Beach is) dealing with a lot of the same uncertainty that's hitting most of the country right now, with everything that's gone on with the economy," Heym said. "I think that, so far, Palm Beach has fared better than most. And I think we'll learn a lot over the next couple of months."

Tuesday, February 24, 2009

"People are buying all the cheap stuff, and the rest is languishing"

Palm Beach existing-home sales slump deepens

Prospective home buyers let the selling season pass with maybe a lowball offer.

Nationally in 2008, 4.9 million homes changed hands, down 13.1 percent from 2007. It was the lowest number of sales since 1997. The median home price last year was $198,600, down 9.3 percent from 2007.

With buyers scooping up bank-owned properties at low prices, regular sellers should buckle up for another rough ride in 2009.

"People are buying all the cheap stuff, and the rest is languishing"

High-End Foreclosures Rising Among Top Tier Homes

High-End Foreclosures Rising Among Top Tier Homes
By Octavio Nuiry, RealtyTrac Staff Writer

Until now, the foreclosure crisis was confined to a narrow niche of middle-class urban communities and outer-rim new housing developments where first-time homeowners and real estate speculators benefited briefly from favorable financing.

But increasingly there are signs that the foreclosure problem is spilling over into wealthier areas, where prime borrowers — and even high-end real estate developers — are rapidly falling behind on their construction loans, mortgage payments, property taxes, auto loans and credit cards at an alarmingly fast pace, according to industry analysts, economists and real estate brokers.

Jack McCabe, a real estate consultant in Deerfield Beach, Fla., said there will be more troubles for upscale flippers, high-end prime borrowers, developers and lenders.
“Upscale foreclosures are a growing trend,” said McCabe, pointing to the overflow of some 30,000 unsold beachfront Miami condominiums. “The wealthy are not insulated from foreclosures. In a lot of the bubble markets — like Miami, Palm Beach, San Diego, Las Vegas, Orange County and the Inland Empire in California — we are going to see an increase in the number of high-end foreclosures in relatively wealthy communities. This is just the tip of the iceberg.”
McCabe believes that delinquencies and defaults will rise not only among subprime borrowers, but among prime mortgages, Alt-A loans, teaser rate loans and low money-down loans as well, forcing homes valued at more than $750,000 into foreclosure. The rising trend of prime delinquencies among the wealthy poses a new threat to a battered housing market, which McCabe and others specialists claim is in a recession or heading towards one.
“The next two years are going to be pretty ugly in South Florida,” predicted McCabe, saying that Florida real estate will drop by another 10 to 15 percent in 2009 and the market will flatten by 2010.

With so many foreclosures across the nation, the mortgage mess is finally hitting the rich and the ultra rich luxury real estate markets. Seven-figure foreclosures — once a rarity in 2007 — are starting to pop up with more frequency in some of the wealthiest communities nationwide. Already, there’s a glut of McMansions in the $500,000 to $1 million range that have been foreclosed by lenders — and many more are falling into foreclosure, according to an analysis of RealtyTrac foreclosure records in 2006 and 2007 (see graphic).

Even in the Hamptons?

In many popular coastal areas, the inventory of high-end foreclosures has swelled, putting additional pressure on home prices and inventories. Along the Long Island shore, John Brady, an agent in the East Hampton area of Long Island, N.Y., trolls the upper-end of the foreclosure train wreck, searching for million-dollar bank-owned listings.

“The high-end housing market is not immune to foreclosure,” said Brady, who handles bank-owned foreclosure listings. “Rich people lose their home to foreclosure too. But they prefer to lose their second home rather than their first home.”
Brady confirmed McCabe’s statements, claiming that a growing number of high-end Hampton homes are falling into foreclosure — although the analysis of foreclosure data from RealtyTrac shows New York foreclosure properties in the $500,000 to $1 million range increased just 7 percent in 2007, and New York foreclosure properties valued at more than $1 million actually decreased 24 percent.
Brady said the owners of high-end Hampton foreclosures tend to be “people who kept pulling money out of their houses for their business, using equity in their second homes to pay business debt, credit cards, buy cars, go on trips.” They used their homes, he said, to get cash and kept pulling equity out.

Beachfront Bubble Bursts

In Florida’s Treasure Coast, buyers for Palm Beach oceanfront properties are some of the wealthiest people in the world. Ever since the 1920s, when the Vanderbilts and Biltmores built palatial winter estates on the sunny beaches of South Florida, northern snowbirds have flocked southward to Florida.
“I’m working with several foreign buyers right now,” said Deborah Magraw, a Palm Beach, Fla. agent who is currently representing buyers from Germany, Canada and Spain. “One buyer is looking for Palm Beach foreclosures priced between a $1.5 million and $2.5 million.”

Magraw, who sells bank-owned properties in the upscale communities of Wellington and West Palm Beach, Fla., said the trend of expensive homes falling into foreclosure has accelerated the past year, and she estimates that their are 80 high-end Palm Beach properties that are in foreclosure.

Consider Veronica Hearst, the widow of Randolph Hearst and stepmother of 1970s kidnap victim Patty Hearst, whose 52-room oceanfront mansion in Palm Beach, Fla. just recently went up for auction and sold back to the foreclosing lender for $22 million.
The Hearst foreclosure is an extreme example showing that high-end foreclosures are a growing trend.

“It’s going to be nasty,” warned McCabe. “The subprime was only the tip of the iceberg.”

Lost Value

"The underlying weakness in our financial system today is the illiquid mortgage assets that have lost value as the housing correction has proceeded,"
Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson said on Sept. 19.

Luxury's rough ride: High-end brands trail overall market

Friday, February 20, 2009

Luxury's rough ride: High-end brands trail overall market
by Christine Tierney / The Detroit News

Daimler AG executives may have thought they had escaped the brutal economics of the mainstream auto market when they got rid of Chrysler in the summer of 2007.
But a little over a year later, Daimler and other luxury carmakers are struggling in a downturn that has buffeted the fanciest nameplates as severely as the rest of the industry.
Daimler reported this week that its Mercedes-Benz Cars division lost $460 million in the fourth quarter of 2008 and it forecast lower Mercedes sales for this year. Moody's Investors Service lowered its outlook for Daimler and said it may cut its credit rating for BMW, citing concerns about the companies' profitability.

In contrast with past recessions, this slump is hurting many wealthy people who usually ride out economic ups and downs.
"This recession is one that is not respectful of social class," said Johan de Nysschen, president of Audi of America. "It's one that's cutting very deeply at all layers of society."
Many premium car buyers work in two of the economy's most troubled sectors, banking and real estate. People with big savings have seen a steep erosion in their personal wealth -- and that hasn't bottomed out. Last month was the worst January on record for the New York Stock Exchange.
In the United States, traditionally the most lucrative auto market, Mercedes sales plunged 42.9 percent and Cadillac sales slumped 42.5 percent in January, compared with the overall market's 37.1 percent drop. Bentley sales were off 74.7 percent, while Porsche's fell 36.1 percent.
While the declines reflect the severity of the recession, auto executives and analysts say underlying trends are aggravating the downturn in luxury car sales -- and they worry those may persist well beyond the recession.
One is a newfound austerity that appears to be a backlash to the conspicuous consumption that characterized the booms of recent decades.
......

February 24, 2009 - 137 Properties for under $3 million

Palm Beach Single Family Homes for SALE between $1,5 and $3,0 million asking price:

137 properties !!!!!!!!

However, I am told that many property owners do not want anybody to know that they are experiencing economic difficulties and are therefore not "listing". So, the number may be much higher than the official 137.

Hamptons - Sale

GREAT REAL ESTATE MARKET at incredible value ?

The Hamptons Half-Price Sale
Prices for opulent weekend homes are slashed, but still fail to attract bidders

By LUCETTE LAGNADO

Bridgehampton, N.Y.

At first glance it's a gated mansion worthy of a Gilded Age: more than 14,000 square feet with eight bedrooms, 9½ bathrooms, five fireplaces, a pool, a pond, a tennis court and ocean views all nestled amid fields perfect for lavish summer parties.

Built on spec, this property was offered for sale in 2006 for $24.95 million. Today? Try $12.95 million -- and even that lower price hasn't yet lured a buyer. The mansion is now being sold at auction as part of a bankruptcy plan by the developer's firm. The manse stands unfinished, forlorn and uninhabited.

"Tragic," says Andrew Saunders, owner of real-estate agency Saunders & Associates, who adds the house would have sold in 2006 if it had been finished or priced less aggressively. "It was not overpriced. He got caught in economic times," counters A. Mitchell Greene, an attorney for the developer.

Welcome to the new Hamptons, where the boom's sunny days and Champagne nights have given way to foreclosure notices and sales at discounts of 25% to 30% and more. Some buyers are making offers of 50 cents on the dollar, and less. Brokers speak of the "Lehman houses" -- homes that used to belong to employees of the fallen Wall Street firm -- or "Madoff homes" -- those owned by clients of the Manhattan financier implicated in a Ponzi scheme. Summer rentals are languishing. "For rent" signs have begun to appear in the windows of some boutiques on Southhampton and East Hampton's tony shopping streets.

While Mr. Saunders remains a staunch optimist -- he opened his agency in Bridgehampton five months ago -- he is in the distinct minority. For many longtime residents, this is more than a recession. "Jay Gatsby is dead," says Dede Gotthelf, owner of the Southampton Inn, referring to F. Scott Fitzgerald's protagonist from another opulent time, also on New York's Long Island, that came to a sudden end. Ms. Gotthelf, many of whose guests spent $400 to $500 a night last summer, had the worst fourth quarter in her 11 years with the hotel, although she says business picked up recently.

A ghostly silence has settled on RVS Fine Arts, the Southampton gallery. Owner Roberta Von Schlossberg says in flush years she could easily sell large paintings in a price range of $5,000 and $25,000. Starting in mid-September as the financial crisis hit, she recalls, Jobs Lane became so quiet "you could roll a bowling ball down the sidewalk. Sales have greatly diminished." In Sag Harbor, Elisca Jeansonne, who owns the Gallery Merz, says business "has flatlined." At the entrance of her gallery stands a large painting of goldfish in a bag by Kevin Berlin. Priced at $35,000, it's on sale for $25,000.

Other famous resort towns are suffering. In Aspen, Colo., sales of single-family homes above $1 million fell 44% in the fourth quarter from a year earlier, according to Morris & Fyrwald Sotheby's International Realty. In the Hamptons, over the past eight years, property values soared to dizzying heights. Once a mecca for artists drawn by the light and natural beauty, the picturesque villages drew wealthy individuals from New York, Los Angeles and Europe. "There were properties that were overvalued more than in your wildest imagination, they were being built and sold for double the price in a couple of years," says Paul Brennan, regional manager for Prudential Douglas Elliman Real Estate. Then last summer, he says, sales stopped. Now, "it is blacker than anyone thought it was going to be." In Southampton, the number of fourth-quarter sales plunged 45%, according to The Real Estate Report Inc.

At Prudential's Bridgehampton office, Broker Lynda Ireland spends much of her time now dealing with offers from individuals she calls "investors." "They are putting $1 million to $1.5 million offers on homes that are $3 million to $4 million," the 25-year Hamptons resident says.

Ms. Ireland herself has been unable to sell a four-bedroom Southampton house she purchased unfinished from a builder in 2006 and put work into it. In 2007, Ms. Ireland put the home on the market for $925,000. The property languished. About four months ago, she rejected an offer of $680,000, sure she could get more. Now, faced with two mortgages and a plummeting market, Ms. Ireland emailed thousands of colleagues and potential customers. "Owner Is Ready to Make a Deal Before They Lose the House," the email read. The note gave a new price: $595,000, which "is still negotiable." She's now entertaining bids at $550,000 -- 41% below her original asking price.

Real-estate broker Enzo Morabito also remembers the good times, when he'd host Champagne parties at the Hamptons' annual polo tournament. He owned as many as three polo horses of his own. Now, Mr. Morabito is running full-page ads in the Southampton Press headlined: "Extraordinary Times Call for Extraordinary Measures." His plan: Hire an auctioneer to sell unwanted properties. He sold his last horse, a pony, last spring.

As for rentals, houses that rented for $350,000 in the summer of 2008 have to be reduced to the $250,000 range to find any takers this year, Prudential's Mr. Brennan says. "People have money. Nobody is spending it," he says, adding hopefully: "They have not canceled summer."

Meanwhile, locals are grappling with ways to survive the downturn. Steven Gaines, author and chronicler of the Hamptons high-life, says he's eating at home most nights. Broker Nelya Veselaya's strategy: get out of town for a while. She flew to Buenos Aires in December for 2½ weeks and danced the tango every night. "Honestly, I was getting really depressed," she says, "So I decided to go away and dance and be happy."

From the WALL STREET JOURNAL this past weekend

What Real Estate Agents Don't Want You To Know

In PALM BEACH, as in any other place, real estate agents will tell you that this downturn in the economy will not affect the island because it is unique, because historically it has held its value, and they will tell you that the recent sales are ALL anomalies. I am not even saying that their intention is to tell you a lie, I think they say this so many times all the time that they really believe their own "facts".




What Real Estate Agents Don't Want You To Know
By Raynor James

For people looking to buy or sell houses, it can be difficult to ignore the prospect of hiring a real estate agent. That being said, what do you really get with an agent?

What Real Estate Agents Don’t Want You To Know

If you go to a doctor, you inherently rely on that person’s years and years of experience. You know they have spent a long time learning the intricacies of the body and you feel comfortable relying on their expertise. The same goes for practically any profession. In the case of real estate, most people assume that a real estate agent has also been trained over and over on the finer points of the real estate transaction. This is not particularly true.

If you ever have the time and money, I strongly suggest you become a real estate agent. It is an eye opening experience unlike any other. You will study a bit and then take your state test to get a license. The test is very, very simple and easy to pass. Your next step is to join up with an experienced realtor to learn under a steady hand. Once you do, you will be surprised by what they teach you.

Real estate is a fairly simple game. There just is not that much involved in buying or selling properties. Most real estate agents learn how to handle the nuts and bolts of the process over a few days of study or even by reading a few books. That doesn’t mean they don’t study and attend a lot of seminars, however. They certainly do, but the subject matter has little to do with the real estate process.

Real estate agents spend all their time and money learning how to sell. The product they focus on, however, is not property. It is you. There are endless seminars and meetings where the only thing addressed is how to get you, their client, to jump on a house or retain the real estate agent to sell yours. The goal of the agent is three fold – get you as a client, figure out how to manipulate you into taking action that will generate a commission and then deal with the property issue.

Evans Report called "EVIL" Report

Read the Evans Report that real estate agents love to hand out and you quickly notice that it's not worth the paper it is written on.

They work with statistics that can hardly teach the truth!

The best example is the median sale for 2008 in PALM BEACH, considering that one of the mansions fetched about $100 million!

It draws all the wrong conclusions. Serious finance experts will tell you the truth: Evans is a lawyer who works for and with
the real estate agents.

That is really all there is to it!

I recommend people DO THEIR HOMEWORK: online one can easily find the MARKET VALUE of homes (in need of revision, of course,
because these always lag behind the real estate market situation - so revise down by 20% - it's realistic), look up recent sales,
yes, they are shocking indeed, do the MATH on the price per square footage that GRAND MANSIONS (not just homes) have been sold for,
THEN draw your own conclusions.

Newspapers Hostage to Realtors

Don't sugarcoat bad news in real estate industry
Click-2-Listen

Indeed the paper first published an article that must have infuriated the REAL ESTATE AGENTS, because shortly thereafter they published another, which "sugarcoated" the reality of the sale. They must have been bombarded with calls that made them change the "message". I think this LETTER hits the nail on its head!



Saturday, February 21, 2009

I understand the need for all of us to be supportive of homeowners but the recent self-censorship your Web page has carried out is counterproductive. On Feb. 11, the headline described a home sale which indicated that the real estate market on the island might finally be coming down.

(Feb. 12) the same article was cleverly reworded on the Web page to describe the same home sale as fetching a reasonable price. I understand that the local real estate industry has a vested interest in saving face with their sellers after telling them that a home purchased in 2006 is automatically worth 20-30 percent more today in 2009. However, your paper should not be playing in this farce.

It is not helpful for anyone for this insightful newspaper to practice newspeak and change the tone of an article in the favor of the real estate listing agents. I recommend that the Palm Beach Daily News begin to slowly break the news to home sellers that just like Manhattan, the Hamptons and Fisher Island, home values on the island are retreating as buyers understand that no one (or place) is an "island" against economic reality.

John Strasswimmer

West Palm Beach

Recovery will take years

Published: February 24, 2009

Bernanke: Recovery will take years
Federal Reserve chief says full recovery from this recession will take more than two or three years.

By Chris Isidore, CNNMoney.com senior writer

NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke said he's hoping the recession could end later this year, but he cautioned that a full economic recovery will take "more than two or three years."

The head of the central bank said a turnaround will only occur "if actions taken by the administration, the Congress, and the Federal Reserve are successful in restoring some measure of financial stability." He also acknowledged the recovery might not go as well as hoped.

"This outlook for economic activity is subject to considerable uncertainty, and I believe that, overall, the downside risks probably outweigh those on the upside," he said in prepared remarks before the Senate Banking Committee Tuesday.

In his prepared testimony, Bernanke did not discuss his views on several plans being discussed about how to fix the nation's banking system, such as proposals to nationalize Citigroup (C, Fortune 500), Bank of America (BAC, Fortune 500) or other large banks.

He also did not give any further details about when the Fed may start to buy long-term Treasury bonds, something the central bank has hinted it may start doing.

But he said that "strong government action," in addition to the financial stimulus package recently passed by Congress, is needed to fix banking and the overall economy.

Bernanke gave this forecast as part of his semi-annual update to Congress about the nation's economic condition.

Saturday, February 21, 2009

Square Foot Price in PALM BEACH

Recent Sales:

$544 per sq. ft. 695 S County Road (Dec. 2008)

$438 per sq. Ft. 280 Orange Grove (Dec. 2008)

$357 per sq. ft. 402 Primavera (Jan. 2009)

$366 per sq. ft. 2267 E Ibis Isle (Dec. 2008)

$646 per sq. ft. 166 Everglades (Nov. 2008)

$561 per sq. ft. 4 Lagomar (Oct. 2008)

$305 per sq. ft. 222 Cherry Lane (Oct. 2008)



&&&

Monday, February 16, 2009

PALM BEACH HOUSING BUBBLE

Palm Beach real estate does NOT escape the housing bubble

Self-fulfilling Prophecy

The expectation of rising prices became a self-fulfilling prophecy as friends, employees, and relatives tried the FLIPPING.
The prevailing mindset was "if they can do it, so should I". More often than not sellers disregard the good advice of honest market value assessment. They keep alive the illusion that things will improve. Most real estate agents prey on these feelings by making promises that will never be fulfilled. They lie in order to "get the foot in the door". Once they have your house listed, they begin the opposite task of telling you that the market reality is that your home value has plummeted. At that point, it's very hard to change your mind and list your home at a more realistic asking price. But the truth is that whoever lowers their price first will be the lucky one to actually sell their home.


******

ASSESSED HOME VALUES in PALM BEACH

Assessed Home Values Very Rarely Equal the Fair Market Value

In respect to home values buyers need to understand that the assessed value is almost always lagging behind what is happening in the Real Estate market.

People, look up the assessed values and then see the outrageous asking prices for properties!

One of these days sellers will have to wake up to the awful truth that even in Palm Beach home values have plummeted.

Again, one must do the homework and understand that only a few years ago homes in Palm Beach were bought for $500,000 and now their owners have put them up for sale for $4 million. No renovations were done! People still want to keep the illusion that they will be allowed to be "FLIPPERS".

Flipping will never again happen in Palm Beach. The way to cash in on real estate will be the traditional long-term investment plan of old. Buy a home, invest, renovate, and hope for a x% yearly increase in value. Sweat equity! Long-term investment in a property!

*****

Doing homework can prevent financial nightmare

Doing homework can prevent financial nightmare — such as in Madoff case


By GAIL LIBERMAN, Special to the Daily News
Saturday, January 31, 2009

With Zsa Zsa Gabor among the latest to be added to the list of those who were taken by Bernie Madoff, professional advice on how to avoid financial nightmares is in order.

The key: A lot of hard work before you invest, suggests Ken Springer, president of New York-based Corporate Resolutions, a business investigations and consulting firm. After all, chances are your family wealth wasn't built on luck. So why rely on blind faith when you invest?

Springer, a former special agent for the FBI, says before entrusting your money to someone, get to know the person with whom you're investing. Do this by scrutinizing his or her history.

I've often suggested some basic web sites worth searching for information on your money manager. Those include an internet search of articles and blogs via "Google." Also, a search for background and complaints at http://us.bbb.org, www.finra.org/investors and www.sec.gov.

But don't stop there, Springer says. There had been a number of questions raised about Bernie Madoff in a Barron's article a couple of years ago. Unfortunately, that article wouldn't have appeared on a traditional search engine because not all publications are on search engines. Plus, some search engines may limit articles they carry.

He suggests a couple of other tactics. Thankfully, a couple, he says, are particularly easy to do in Palm Beach County.

* Search for lawsuits. One great resource is www.pbcountyclerk.com, he notes. You can find liens, judgments and criminal records. "Every county is different," he says, "but (Palm Beach County) happens to be a good one."

* Check with your attorney general to see if your money manager, or anyone else with whom you're considering doing business, has been in trouble or is involved in an ongoing investigation. In Florida, you can check ongoing state attorney general investigations at www.myfloridalegal.com. Click on "Programs and Units," on the left. For a searchable data base, click on "Economic crimes."

* Check federal U.S. District Court, bankruptcy and Appellate court records at http://pacer.psc.uscourts.gov. Unfortunately, this Web site charges. It's generally 8 cents per page, including the initial search results. Plus, there is a limit of $2.40 per other document you view, download or print.

* Be sure to scrutinize your money manager's ADV form, on file, often at www.sec.gov. Bernie Madoff, Springer notes, disclosed on his ADV Form that he had a relationship with a securities firm through which he conducted all his trades — a conflict of interest. Monitor custodial agreements so you know who's managing the money. Make sure it's an independent third party.

* Examine the accounting firm. In Madoff's case, the accounting firm was a three-person firm 40 miles north of New York City. This, Springer notes, didn't make sense. "If (an investment firm) is in Palm Beach, you're going to use a firm in Palm Beach, West Palm Beach or Delray. You wouldn't use someone in Alabama!" This raises a red flag to ask questions.

* If you're investing large amounts, don't do it, he advises, without searching all of these major data bases: LexisNexis, Westlaw, Factiva — which covers The Wall Street Journal and Barron's — and Bloomberg. Those four data bases, he says, "are the types of research tools just to see what news stories are out there."

* Verify whatever you can. "If someone gives you three references, call them," he suggests. "I don't care if it's a general contractor who did work on a home. Find out, 'Did they do what they said? Were there any problems?' If the person says he or she is licensed and bonded, ask, 'who are you licensed with?' 'How can I confirm this?' Verify the information."

* Monitor your investments on an ongoing basis. Today, Internet search engines let you arrange to have ongoing information about anything you choose automatically emailed to you. Make certain you use this great feature.

Relying on a librarian to help you? Make sure your librarian understands exactly what you need. Problem: Say you're searching for lawsuits. Not all courts list previously settled lawsuits. Their data bases may be limited to pending lawsuits. Also, beware that nowadays people will settle cases out of court for business reasons. Of course, you'll want to read what that lawsuit was about.

Gail Liberman is co-author of several books with her husband, Alan Lavine. Their latest, published by Que, is 'Quick Steps to Financial Stability.'

RECOVERY in 2010?

Cautious analysts hope for a beginning of a very slow recovery in the second half of 2010.

The US recovery still seems very distant.

US recovery still distant: Canada's top banker

OTTAWA (AFP) — The US economy may not emerge from recession until at least 2010, making it harder for Canada to stage its own recovery, Canada's central bank chief said Tuesday.
Thus, Canadians may have to temper expectations for their own dour economy, which is intricately tied to US fortunes, Bank of Canada Governor Mark Carney told a parliamentary committee on finance.
"The outlook for the global economy has deteriorated significantly in recent months," he told members of parliament. "The recession that originated in the United States is now spreading globally through confidence, financial and trade channels."
"We (now) expect that the eventual US recovery will be much slower than usual," he said. "We project that it will take two and half years from the onset of the recession for US GDP (gross domestic product) to return to its pre-recession level."
Carney blamed the US "sluggishness" on the lingering effects of a financial crisis caused by the meltdown of the US subprime mortgage market last year, and massive US job losses, compounding low consumer spending.
Decisions by the US and other Group of 20 nations in the coming weeks to "isolate toxic assets" from banks, improve regulatory frameworks and fund the International Monetary Fund (IMF), he said, "are vital" to Canada's economic recovery.
"If these national and multilateral measures are not timely, bold, and well-executed, Canada?s economic recovery will be both attenuated and delayed," he said.

*****

Recession could last long into 2010
David Gow in Brussels
guardian.co.uk, Wednesday 10 December 2008 15.13 GMT
Article history
The recession in the industrialised world will be longer and deeper than forecast so far and could spread to emerging economies such as China and India, the OECD and European commission warned today.

Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel, OECD chief economist, and Marco Buti, European commission director-general of economic affairs, both indicated that the projected recovery could be postponed until later in 2010.

Buti said the next commission forecasts for the EU and eurozone economies, to be published a month earlier than planned in January, would be significantly worse than those drawn up a few weeks ago.

Schmidt-Hebbel told a European Policy Centre conference the OECD would now change its forecast of just two weeks ago and extend the projected recession by at least a quarter, with unemployment peaking in 2010-11. The OECD is so far forecasting a rise of 8 million unemployed to 42 million in its area.

Their gloomy readings of global economic forecasts came as a leading German forecaster, the RWI institute, said Europe's biggest economy would contract by 2% in 2009 – the worst recession since 1949. France's industrial output collapsed by a record 7.2% last month.

Another was the likelihood that central banks, led by the US Federal Reserve which is expected to cut rates to 0.5% next week, would further ease monetary policy. But the impact of cuts to near-zero could take longer than usual to feed through.

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PALM BEACH's WORTH AVENUE

ECONOMIC DOWNTURN leaves LUXURY BRANDS in jeopardy

By MEGAN V. WINSLOW
Daily News Staff Writer
Sunday, February 15, 2009

WEST PALM BEACH — Stroll down Worth Avenue any given afternoon, and the sheer volume of designer handbags draped from shoppers' arms creates an alphabet soup of initialed logos demanding attention.

The current economy, however, could mean a decline in the conspicuous display of such status symbols, Conde Nast Portfolio's European Editor, Dana Thomas, told the Luxury Marketing Council of the Palm Beaches on Tuesday.

"Who wants to be walking around town, showing off wealth when nobody else has it?" Thomas said. "You just don't do it. There's a toning-down across the board."

Thomas delved into her nearly 30-year history of covering the fashion industry to share observations and predictions about the health of luxury brands with about 40 council members gathered at the Phillips Point Club by The Breakers.

Luxury's diagnosis isn't good.

Consumers are not buying; stock prices are dismal, and many companies are scaling back advertising and the launch of new stores to compensate, Thomas said.

LUXURY SHOPPING

Palm Beach DIOR boutique closes abruptly

By ROBERT JANJIGIAN
Palm Beach Daily News Fashion Editor

Wednesday, January 07, 2009

For the past two years, rumors have swirled that the island's Christian Dior boutique was about to close, said Sherry Frankel, president of the Worth Avenue Association.

On the afternoon of Dec. 26, however, the rumor came true as the store was shuttered, signs atop the storefront removed quickly and windows covered with black paper.

"It didn't come as that much of a surprise, considering all the speculation about it closing that's been bandied down the Avenue for quite a while," Frankel said. "The only surprise was that Dior closed the day after Christmas, apparently quite abruptly."

Company officials declined to explain.

"We have no comment at this time," said a New York-based spokeswoman for Christian Dior, the Paris-based company owned by LVMH.

The French luxury-goods conglomerate also owns Louis Vuitton and Emilio Pucci and operates Vuitton and Pucci boutiques at 150 Worth Ave.

The 2,000-square-foot Dior boutique was, when it opened Nov. 1, 2003, the Paris house's 15th store in the United States and, at the time, one of three boutiques in the country selling the Dior fine jewelry collection.

"When you're in the luxury-goods business, you know that Palm Beach is a place we needed to be," Marla Sabo, former president and chief operating office of Christian Dior North America, said just before the store opened.

Florida Dior boutiques remain in operation at the Bal Harbour Shops north of Miami and at Orlando's Mall at Millennia.

Locally, Dior products are not available at either of the major department stores, Saks Fifth Avenue or Neiman Marcus, although Saks in Boca Raton does stock the label's merchandise.

The space formerly occupied by Dior at 202 Worth Ave. is owned by the Salvatore Ferragamo company under the Moda Imports Inc. name.

Ferragamo owns the entire building and the series of storefronts that skirt the southwest corner of County Road and Worth Avenue.

The building's tenants include Gypsy, the Ferragamo boutique, Valentino and Kaufmann de Suisse Jewelers. There are currently two vacant storefronts, the former Dior space at 202 and the former Emanuel Ungaro space at 440. S. County Road, which has remained empty since the September closing of that Paris-based fashion boutique.

The Ferragamo company's New Jersey-based real estate executives also had no comment on Dior's closure and could not confirm details about the leasing arrangements.

"We are sad to see Dior go," Frankel said. "While it's a loss for the Avenue, there is a prime retail spot now available that I'm certain will be filled swiftly with an equally prestigious retailer."

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Palm Beach's UNGARO boutique shutters after 11 years

By ROBERT JANJIGIAN
Daily News Fashion Editor
Wednesday, October 08, 2008

After an 11-year run, the Emanuel Ungaro fashion boutique abruptly closed up shop at 10 a.m. Wednesday.

The Paris fashion house opened the boutique at 440 S. County Road, just south of Worth Avenue, in November 1997. It was one of two Ungaro boutiques in the United States; the flagship American boutique is still operating in Manhattan.

"I think that Ungaro, along with many of the retailers in Palm Beach, was suffering due to the economic situation. I expect the season will be pretty quiet for business."


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PALM BEACH ECONOMY WORSENING

PALM BEACH REAL ESTATE - bad..... worse NEWS

The news is getting worse. The latest sales (as of February 2009) indicate the "fall" of the last bastion in U.S. real estate.

Has the RECESSION reached PALM BEACH? Home sells for millions less than peak asking price


By MEGAN V. WINSLOW
Palm Beach Daily News Staff Writer

Wednesday, February 11, 2009


Last week's sale of a new island home at a discount of more than $4 million off the peak asking price could be a sign of the times - or a sign the price tag was initially inflated, real estate professionals associated with the deal said.

Novice developer George L. Ford III's Mediterranean-style house at 756 Slope Trail sold for $5.96 million, down from a $10.3 million peak in December 2007, about the time it was first openly marketed.


The five-bedroom, 6 1/2 bath residence is situated atop a hill next to the town's historic Art Deco-style water building, and it overlooks the Palm Beach Country Club golf course.

According to the warranty deed, the new owner is Christopher Dacamara Orthwein, son of Adolphus Busch Orthwein, former vice president of operations for Anheuser Busch Cos.

Michael Montgomery, of Jeffrey A. Cloninger & Associates Inc., represented Orthwein in the sale, and Scott Gordon, of Fite Shavell & Associates, represented Ford.

Gordon said the poor economy might be to blame for the price reduction.

Gordon said the price started at $8.9 million before rising to $10.3 million and then dropping to the final asking price of $7.99 million.

A year ago, Ford had a "much better offer" but turned it down, Gordon said, declining to elaborate.

Still, $5.96 million - $6.45 million with all the added fees - is "a good price" for a newly constructed home in a slow market, Gordon said.

The home's 6,140 square feet of living space translates the final sales price into more than $1,000 a square foot, he said.



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Developer delays mansion work, says proceeding would be foolish

By JEFF OSTROWSKI
Palm Beach Post Staff Writer

Monday, February 16, 2009



When an eternal optimist like Frank McKinney says he's scared, you know times are tough.

The flamboyant developer has delayed construction of two oceanfront manses in Manalapan until the global economy recovers. McKinney had planned to build a $125 million castle and a $30 million estate on vacant land he owns just south of the Ritz-Carlton.

But now that the luxury market no longer is bulletproof, McKinney acknowledged that pushing forward would be "foolish."

"It's a pretty scary time - I know I'm scared," McKinney said last week. "This is the first time I have seen the wealthy affected by one thing and one thing only, and that's sentiment."

For now, he's focusing on selling Acqua Liana, on the market for $29 million. The Manalapan manse includes a number of eco-friendly features such as solar panels and wood from fast-growing trees like bamboo and coconut.

McKinney has built two dozen mansions in Palm Beach County. Over the past 10 years, McKinney said, his mansions have sold for an average of 5 percent below list price, and after 55 days on the market. But he doubted he'll sell so close to his asking price or so quickly.

"That's gonna be a tall order," he said.

As McKinney's caution suggests, the high end of the economy no longer lives in its own little fantasy world. A year ago, private jets were still selling, mega-yachts were moving, and home prices in the town of Palm Beach were soaring (even as prices in the county of Palm Beach were tanking).

Now, though, mansion sellers like Dru Schmitt have slashed prices. Schmitt sold his 23,000-square-foot palace in Boca Raton in January for $12.9 million, after originally listing it for $24.9 million. The deal was recorded at $10.9 million, but the buyer paid an extra $2 million for furniture, said the buyer's agent, Gary Pohrer of Fite Shavell.

In another example, E. Llwyd Ecclestone III accepted $11.3 million for a home in Lost Tree Village near North Palm Beach. The 13,080-square-foot house was listed at $15.9 million, said Ecclestone's listing agent, Dolly Peters of Illustrated Properties Real Estate.

Luxe retailers are hurting, too. Take Tiffany: The jeweler reported holiday sales plunged by 21 percent from a year ago, and it has offered early retirement packages to 800 employees. A few employees at Tiffany stores in Palm Beach and Palm Beach Gardens are said to be taking the offers.

And two Palm Beach boutiques - Christian Dior at 202 Worth Ave. andEmanuel Ungaro at 440 S. County Road - closed late last year.

The global meltdown has brought more setbacks for Rodger Krouse andMarc Leder, two titans of the private equity industry who run Sun Capital Partners of Boca Raton.

Both invested with Bernard L. Madoff Investment Securities, the massive Ponzi scheme, and appear on the list of victims released this month by a federal bankruptcy court.

"The investment in Madoff was a small personal investment made by our co-CEOs and represents an insignificant part of their investment portfolio," a Sun Capital spokesman said. "Sun Capital Partners and its limited partnerships did not make nor have ever made an investment with Madoff."

In January, Sun Capital laid off 23 workers, or 10 percent of its staff. And this month, another of Sun Capital's 90 or so portfolio companies sought bankruptcy protection. Fluid Routing Solutions, a Michigan-based supplier of auto parts, filed Chapter 11.

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Real Estate Agents buying house for way under property assessed value:

Real estate brokers buy 4BD in Palm Beach
by Christian Lambert, publishedTuesday, January 13 2009 12:42 PM
Christian J. Angle and Ann-Britt Angle bought a four-bedroom, 3.5-bath home at 280 Orange Grove Road in Palm Beach from Robert X. DeMarcellus and Mildred F. DeMarcellus for $1.067 million on Dec. 24.


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